A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
